The Squid Game : Is the end of chapter 7 likely?

No, if you haven’t seen chapter 7 of The Squid Game, from NetflixYou shouldn’t read on, as this math article is full of spoilers. Yes, math and the most successful series in Netflix history. It may seem strange, but the truth is that they are essential to estimate the probability of survival that players have in one of their most gruesome trials.

It is the conclusion of a group of math fans and Reddit users, who have dedicated themselves to calculating the probability they had of surviving and have even made a computer program which points out that the end result, curiously, was one of the least likely.

What happens in chapter seven of ‘The Squid Game’?

In case you were one of those who melted the serie de Netflix in one sitting as soon as we left, let’s remember what happened in the seventh chapter of The Squid Game.

There is a time limit and if they do not comply with it they also die

In them sixteen applicants left alive must cross a room, giving eighteen steps. It seems easy. The problem is that in each of these steps they must choose between two hatches. One is covered in tempered glass, so it will perfectly support your weight and that of the player behind you. Another, of glass normal, so as soon as they step on it they will break and they will fall into the void.

At the beginning of the test they have dorsal that turn out to correspond to the place where they will have to participate. It is important, because the probability will play against the former. The former will not be able to learn from lethal mistakes nobody, while the following will only have a few people ahead.

The latter will have it easier in this regard, but they will have less time, since the test has a very specific duration, after which all the hatches are broken and all would be equally dead. Taking into account that, logically, the former will invest a lot of time in making their decisions, the latter must do it all much faster.

The random plays a very important role, of course. But what does mathematics say about it?

Mathematics to analyze the Netflix series

Before starting, it should be noted that the contestants also have the possibility of pushing each other. And boy do they. But this is irrelevant as far as mathematics is concerned, so it is not taken into account for the calculations. The first contender for The Squid Game has a 50% chance of surviving every step you take. There are 18 steps in total, so this represents a probability of 0.5 to 18 to reach the end. That is, 0.00038%.

There was a 1.2% chance of that ending

He’s got it pretty raw, certainly, so it stands to reason that he won’t survive. Thus, it will leave a broken hatch, so will remove an unknown to the next player. In fact, according to this group of Reddit users, each player will have a ½ chance of eliminating a second unknown for the next challenger.

So what is the probability of reaching at the end of the bridge? This is where the program in Python developed by one of the followers of the Netflix series. In it, he uses mathematics to calculate all possible conformations. Assuming that one in four people reaches their third jump, they would be providing information on three complete steps of 18. Therefore, the probability of survival would already be very high when reaching player 10. In fact, in all the conformations analyzed with the program, on average survival began after 9 deaths. I would assume that 7 people could survive, who would already know the steps to get there.

The problem is that, in this case, fear and impulsiveness they override the math. The contestants try to boycott each other, playing desperately, sometimes without correctly memorizing each other’s steps and, to top it all, wasting time for the last contestants. The result? Only three they managed to survive. Something that, based on the program of this Reddit user, was one of the least likely options, with only 1.2%.

And it is that despair does not understand odds. Let’s face it, if we were participating in The Squid Game, we probably wouldn’t use reason either. Or maybe yes. Fortunately, what is posed in this test is only fiction.